After hitting the 2 years high at 386, stock price of CAIRN
INDIA is moving in downtrend from last 6 months. The current downtrend seems
exhausted as stock has reached to the strong demand zone of 255 – 265 levels
and Momentum Oscillator RSI is also approaching oversold territory on the weekly
chart. A series of ‘positive divergence’ of RSI can be clearly seen in daily
chart. If we meticulously observe the prices, we are witnessing emergence of a
harmonic pattern named as ‘Bullish AB=CD Pattern’. Here, after the fall from
386 (A point) to 304.10 (B point), price has made the high of 344.40 (C point),
which is 50% retracement level of the fall (AB). After that stock is falling
and reached to 266 levels (D point), which is near 200% retracement of BC, thus
fulfilling all the criteria of ‘Bullish AB=CD pattern’. Apart from that, 100%
projection of ‘AB’ from ‘Point C’ is also placed at 263 levels, which shows the
symmetry of the pattern is perfect. Since ‘CD’ wave is slower than ‘AB’ wave,
chances of trend reversal is high. Thus, one can buy this stock at
current levels (262) and on dips to Rs 258 for a target price of Rs 302 - 318.
Stoploss for the trade should be placed below 253 levels on closing basis.
Technical & Derivatives analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying open interest, volumes and price action. My free view and analysis is a small contribution to keeping people informed about capital market. This blog is purely for the study purpose and one shall consult their Financial Advisor before trading/investing.
Thursday, 13 November 2014
Tuesday, 11 November 2014
Divis Lab Ltd - Striving for Leadership through Chemistry !!!
After making the all-time high of 1888.05, stock price of Divis
Lab Ltd has corrected by merely 10% in last week. The trend and momentum is
still bullish in the stock as ‘Higher Top Higher Bottom’ formation is still
intact and Momentum Oscillator RSI is taking support at 60 levels in weekly
chart. At current juncture, we are observing ‘positive reversal’ of RSI in both
daily and weekly chart, suggesting a sharp rally on cards.
Yesterday, we have witnessed ‘inside bar’ in daily chart and
the narrowest candle in last seven trading sessions (which is known as NR7).
The NR7 is a reversal pattern on either side, depending on the following price
action. Since Momentum Oscillators and Averages are positively placed, we are
expecting upward rally in upcoming days. One can buy this
stock on confirmation above Rs 1747 for a target price of Rs 1875 - 1930.
Stoploss for the trade should be placed below 1699 levels.
IDFC Ltd
The stock price of IDFC Ltd is trading in a strong uptrend in
weekly chart by preserving ‘Higher Highs Higher Lows’ formation. The ongoing
upmove seems to be a copy book ‘Impulse and Corrective Rally’ which led the
stock to bounce back sharply from some or the other Fibonacci retracement
levels. The best part of this rally is
that it is not a vertical rally, which always tends to fizzle out on profit
booking (generally a “V” shape rally is followed by a sharp sell-off too). We
are also observing the formation of ‘Inverse Head and Shoulder’ pattern in
weekly chart, whose neckline is placed at 166 levels.
Looking at the daily
chart, stock price is moving in sideways direction after hitting the 52 weeks
high of 166.65. Recently, Stock has given very strong buy signal by sustaining
above the ‘rounding formation’ which is made in past seven weeks. On Monday,
stock has retested the neckline of the rounding pattern, which also coincides
with ’10 Days EMA’, and bounced back piercingly; thus completed three days
corrective pattern. Momentum Oscillator RSI is positively placed and has taken
support of the breakout trendline in daily chart. One can buy this stock at current market price of Rs 155 and on dips to Rs 153 for a target price of Rs 176 – 187. Stoploss for
the trade should be placed below 149 levels.
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